Where Will the New Chuo Shinkansen Station Be? Nara City's Real Estate Investment Strategy and Land Price Forecasts for the 2037 Opening

With the 2037 plan to extend the Chuo Shinkansen (Linear) line to Osaka becoming a tangible reality, the real estate market in Nara Prefecture—a leading candidate for an intermediate station—is now drawing keen interest from investors nationwide. Nara City, in particular, home to a potential station site, stands at the threshold of a "once-in-a-century" transformation, with immeasurable potential. The dramatic reduction in travel time—approximately one hour to Shinagawa (Tokyo) and just 25 minutes to Nagoya—could elevate Nara from a mere tourist destination to a strategic hub chosen for both business and residence.

However, in a market driven by high expectations, calm analysis and data-based judgment are essential. Where exactly will the new Linear station be built? How will this affect land prices in each area? In this article, drawing on the latest real estate transaction data exclusively obtained by Mekiki Research, we will provide a thorough forecast and analysis of Nara City's real estate investment strategy and the future of its land prices from the perspective of a veteran analyst looking ahead to 2037.

## 1. The Current Status of the Chuo Shinkansen Project and the Importance of Nara City

The Chuo Shinkansen is a massive national project that will connect Tokyo (Shinagawa) and Osaka at a maximum speed of 500 km/h. The initial plan was to open the Shinagawa-Nagoya section in 2027 and extend the line to Osaka by 2045. However, by leveraging the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP), the Osaka extension was moved up by a maximum of eight years, with a new target of opening the entire line in 2037. While the opening date for the Nagoya section is currently uncertain due to construction delays in the Shizuoka Prefecture section, progress toward the Osaka extension continues steadily.

Within this project, it is considered almost certain that an intermediate station will be established in Nara Prefecture, serving as the single biggest catalyst for Nara City's real estate market. Nara, which has traditionally been seen as a commuter town for Kyoto and Osaka or a historical tourist spot, will be directly connected to Japan's main economic artery by the Linear line. This is expected to trigger an explosive increase in business-related travel and exchange, creating new demand for offices and commercial facilities, and encouraging relocation by those seeking a high-quality living environment.

The Japanese government and JR Central (JR Tokai) emphasize the role of the Linear line in promoting balanced national development, and the establishment of a station in Nara Prefecture embodies this philosophy. The arrival of the Linear line, a marvel of cutting-edge technology, in a city so rich in history and culture, holds the potential to create a new urban model where tradition and innovation merge. As the center of this transformation, Nara City's importance is growing by the day.

## 2. Why is Nara City a Hotspot for Real Estate Investment? A Re-evaluation of its History, Tourism, and Accessibility

Even without the Linear project, Nara City has always possessed high potential as a real estate market. It is home to a concentration of World Heritage sites, including Todai-ji Temple, Kofuku-ji Temple, and Kasuga Taisha Shrine, which attract numerous tourists from both Japan and abroad. This unique historical value provides a powerful foundation that underpins its real estate values.

Its current transportation access is also excellent. According to data from Mekiki Research, the city's central hub, Kintetsu-Nara Station, operated by Kintetsu Railway, is a major terminal with daily passenger traffic of 67,761. Access to major cities in the Kansai region is extremely convenient, with a travel time of about 40 minutes to Osaka-Namba by rapid express and about 45 minutes to Kyoto, making it a fully competitive commuter area.

The arrival of the new Linear station will exponentially amplify these existing strengths. For example, a lifestyle where a businessperson from Tokyo resides in Nara and commutes to the capital region via the Linear line will become a realistic option. Furthermore, tourists who previously made day trips may shift to "stay-and-explore tourism," using Nara as a base for multi-day stays. These changes will generate new demand across all real estate sectors, including residential properties, hotels, commercial facilities, and rental properties. It is precisely because Nara's historical value is now merging with the future convenience brought by the Linear line that the city is being recognized as a prime investment target.

## 3. Leading Candidate Sites for the Linear Station and Their Potential

While the specific location of the Linear station in Nara Prefecture has not been officially decided, several leading candidate sites have emerged. Comparing the characteristics and potential of each area is crucial for formulating an investment strategy.

1. Around JR Heijōyama Station (Nara City)

   • Potential: This site offers connectivity with the JR Kansai Main Line and Nara Line. It is also close to the Keinawa Expressway and has extensive undeveloped land, allowing for large-scale urban development integrated with the station. With good access to the Kansai Science City, it has the potential to become a hub for research institutions and corporate R&D centers.
   • Challenges: Much of the area is currently designated as an urbanization control area, where development is restricted. Development would require strong administrative leadership and massive investment in infrastructure and zoning changes.

2. Around Yamatokoriyama City

   • Potential: As a junction where the JR Yamatoji Line and the Kintetsu Kashihara Line intersect, it offers smooth integration with the existing railway network. It also has good access from the Nishi-Meihan Expressway and holds promise as a logistics hub.
   • Challenges: Located slightly south of central Nara City, its function as a gateway for Nara tourism may be inferior to the Heijōyama proposal. Securing sufficient developable land could also be a challenge.

3. Around Gakken-Takanohara Station (on the border of Nara City and Kyoto Prefecture)

   • Potential: Situated in the heart of the Kansai Science City (Gakken Toshi), a cluster of research institutions, universities, and companies. A Linear station here would dramatically improve access for researchers and business people from around the world, solidifying its status as an innovation hub.
   • Challenges: Its location on the border with Kyoto Prefecture could complicate coordination between the two prefectural governments. It is also some distance from Nara's historical and tourist centers.

Each of these candidate sites has its pros and cons, but regardless of the final decision, it is certain that significant economic benefits will ripple throughout Nara City, especially to transportation hubs like Kintetsu-Nara Station and JR Nara Station. As secondary transport links connecting the new station to the existing city center are developed, property values across the entire city are expected to rise.

## 4. Land Price Trends and Official Valuations Near Candidate Sites Based on the Latest Data

To discuss the expectations for the Linear line, it is essential to have an accurate grasp of the current market. Here, we analyze the present situation based on the latest real estate transaction data for the area around Kintetsu-Nara Station (period: 2021-2025) obtained by Mekiki Research. This area is crucial as it is expected to serve as the gateway from the future new station to the city center, with high potential for value appreciation.

During this period, an exceptionally high number of 6,858 real estate transactions were recorded around Kintetsu-Nara Station, indicating a highly liquid market. Looking at transaction prices, the average price was approximately ¥27.01 million, with a median price of ¥20 million, showing that a diverse range of properties are being traded, from ultra-luxury units for the wealthy to more affordable options.

Let's look at a few specific transaction examples.

From this data, we can see the reality of the market: a 70㎡, 3-bedroom condo in Saidaiji-higashimachi, approximately 15 years old (as of 2021), sold for ¥36 million, while a 140㎡ plot of land in Sanjo-hinokicho sold for ¥25 million (¥180,000/m²). There is also a case of a nearly new single-family home built in 2021 selling for ¥36 million, indicating a market that caters to diverse needs.

Furthermore, a key factor supporting this area's potential is its excellent living environment. The surrounding area is designated as a Type 1 Residential Zone, with regulations setting a building-coverage ratio of 60% and a floor-area ratio of 200%, which helps maintain a calm and orderly townscape. This suggests that development will prioritize the living environment rather than allowing a proliferation of large commercial facilities and high-rise buildings, making it attractive to families and those seeking a high quality of life.

Another reassuring factor for investors is the low hazard risk. According to the provided data, the area around Kintetsu-Nara Station is assessed as having low risk for both flooding and landslides (hasRisk: false). High resilience to natural disasters is an extremely important element in maintaining long-term asset value. Taken together, these data points indicate that the Kintetsu-Nara Station area has formed a stable market that can serve as a "baseline" before Linear-related expectations fully kick in, suggesting it holds significant potential for future price appreciation.

## 5. Simulating the Economic Ripple Effects of the New Station: Office and Commercial Demand

The establishment of a new Linear station will do more than just improve transportation convenience; it has the potential to transform the very economic structure of Nara City. Nara Prefecture estimates the annual economic ripple effect of the station's opening to be approximately ¥86.3 billion, an enormous stimulus for the regional economy.

The greatest effect will be the creation of business demand. By directly connecting to major metropolitan areas like Shinagawa and Nagoya, Nara can expect to attract branch offices and R&D facilities from companies that had previously hesitated to establish a presence there due to geographical constraints. In particular, if the station is built near Heijōyama, close to the Kansai Science City, a rapid accumulation of high-tech companies collaborating with nearby research institutions could occur.

This trend will stimulate office demand. Not only will large-scale office buildings be developed around the new station, but demand for satellite offices and co-working spaces will also spill over into existing urban centers like the area around Kintetsu-Nara Station. The concept of commuting will change, giving rise to a new workstyle where people work in Nara's rich natural and historical environment and travel to major cities via the Linear line as needed.

The increase in population exchange will also boost commercial demand. As the number of business visitors and new residents grows, the market for dining, retail, and services will expand. There will be a particular need for commercial facilities that can cater to both weekday business demand and weekend tourist demand. The area around Kintetsu-Nara Station is already home to 44 medical facilities (e.g., Kitaoka Clinic), and this well-developed living infrastructure provides a powerful advantage in attracting new residents and workers.

## 6. The Synergy of Inbound Tourism Recovery and the Linear Line: Development Potential for Hotels and Commercial Facilities

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan's inbound tourism is showing a strong recovery. Amid this favorable trend, the opening of the Chuo Shinkansen will bring revolutionary changes to Nara City's tourism industry.

Until now, for many international tourists, Nara has been a day-trip destination from Kyoto or Osaka. However, once the Linear line opens, it will be easily accessible even from Tokyo, and the number of tourists whose primary destination is Nara, or who use Nara as a base for longer stays, is expected to increase.

This shift presents a major business opportunity, especially for the hotel industry. Currently, the number and variety of accommodation facilities in Nara City are limited compared to Kyoto and Osaka. To meet the growing and diversifying needs of future tourists, the development potential for various types of accommodations—from luxury hotels to extended-stay apartment hotels and unique boutique hotels—will soar.

The same applies to commercial facilities. As tourists stay longer, their spending will increase. In particular, demand will rise for high-end restaurants targeting affluent inbound visitors and upscale retail stores selling traditional crafts. The area around Kintetsu-Nara Station, as the gateway to Todai-ji Temple and Nara Park, is one of the most suitable locations for such inbound-oriented commercial development. Nara City, where the "time revolution" brought by the Linear line and the wave of inbound tourism recovery intersect, has the potential to become an unprecedented growth market for tourism-related real estate.

## 7. Risks for Investors to Watch: Potential Delays and Demographic Shifts

While it is easy to be captivated by the bright future the Linear project promises, real estate investment always comes with risks. To make a sound investment decision, it is crucial to be fully aware of the following three risks.

1. Risk of Project Delays or Changes: The Linear project is facing difficulties, particularly with the Shizuoka section, making the original 2027 Nagoya opening date challenging. It remains unclear how this will affect the 2037 Osaka extension plan. The possibility that the final station location decision or the opening date could be postponed should always be kept in mind. A market overheated by expectations alone could become unstable each time a project delay is reported.

2. Demographic Changes in Japan as a Whole: We cannot ignore the macro reality that Japan has entered an era of population decline. Nara City is no exception, and whether the "Linear effect" can shift the city's population to a growth trajectory will determine its long-term real estate value. The key to success lies not only in increasing the flow of visitors but also in the city's policies and urban planning efforts to attract and retain permanent residents.

3. Risk of Overpaying Due to Excessive Hype: Extreme caution is necessary to avoid a localized price surge that could be called a "Linear bubble." In areas near the candidate station sites, transactions may already be reflecting these high expectations. The crucial task is to calmly weigh current profitability (income gains) against future appreciation (capital gains). The abundant transaction history around Kintetsu-Nara Station, with 6,858 transactions, serves as a valuable benchmark for determining fair market value at this time. A cautious approach is required for properties priced significantly above these actual market values.

Understanding these risks and taking a long-term perspective while continuously tracking the latest developments from reliable sources is an indispensable approach for succeeding in real estate investment in Nara City.

## 8. Conclusion: An Investment Strategy for Nara City Looking Toward 2037 and the Keys to Success

The establishment of a Chuo Shinkansen station in Nara Prefecture is a historic turning point that will dramatically change the future of the ancient capital. It is not merely the development of transportation infrastructure but a catalyst with the potential to transform the city's functions, economic structure, and even people's lifestyles.

As analyzed in this article, Nara City is on the verge of acquiring future value from the Linear line in addition to its universal value as a World Heritage site. The latest data from the Kintetsu-Nara Station area shows a current market level with an average transaction price of approximately ¥27.01 million and a median of ¥20 million. This, combined with low hazard risk and a favorable living environment provided by its Type 1 Residential Zone designation, confirms that it possesses solid fundamentals as a real estate investment target.

The keys to a successful investment strategy with an eye on the 2037 opening can be summarized in the following three points:

1. Maintain a Long-Term Perspective: The Linear opening is more than a decade away. It is vital to adopt a patient approach focused on cultivating assets over the long term, believing in Nara City's growth story without being swayed by short-term price fluctuations.
2. Stay Updated with Information: Continuously monitor official information, such as the final decision on the station's location and the progress of related urban planning projects, and be prepared to adapt flexibly to any changes.
3. Make Calm, Data-Driven Decisions: Avoid being influenced by hype and rumors. The only way to avoid overpaying and increase the probability of success is to calmly assess a property's intrinsic value based on objective transaction data and hazard information, such as that provided by "Mekiki Research."

The dawn of the new Linear era has already begun. With the compass of reliable data in hand, why not take a prudent step into Nara, a city where history and the future intersect?

Explore real estate data around Kintetsu-Nara Station yourself with Mekiki Research →